The Chinese high-altitude operation platform leasing market before 2019, known as "Blue Sea", the last "Blue Sea" in the construction machinery industry. The rental operators around the world have a leisurely no pressure, there is time to have a mood, and the sound is full of money. However, in the fourth quarter of 2019, the industry style mutant, the living environment of the leaser became incredible, no one dared to shoot the chest, this is the "Blue Sea" market.
So why do you have this situation, what is the reason for deep level? What kind of way we should do, what kind of mentality is facing this?
01 high-altitude operation platform has the characteristics of the construction machinery market
The construction machinery industry is a turtly-long market: everyone knows that China's engineering machinery industry competition has always fierce, and the industry has become a fierce snoring even in the low cereals. Compared to the orders of Europe and the United States Construction Machinery, China Construction Machinery Giants, China Construction Machinery Giants have always maintained a large stock, with large stocks, then there is a large sales pressure, so, various promotional policies It has been introduced to gain a demand for customers and make yourself shipped quickly, and it is important to handle the development of the entire construction machinery market. So why do China's construction machinery giants do? Does orders production, is zero?
Middle-aged Europe and America, who is long, is in the long body, China: We often see the image of China's "Become Relve", such as 9 hours to repair a railway, and cover a hospital in 6 days. We can also see the inefficiencies of Europe and the United States, such as London Airports, 7 years of decline, and the United States built a kilometer three-year high-speed rail, Indians slowly swallowed. Maybe, this is the fundamental reason! Europe and America have matured or aging, they no longer need so fast, and some even lose weight (internal consumption, slow development). At this time, China is as if it is a teenager who is growing in the body. The whole body is in the long bones, long muscles, engaged in construction, and development. The high efficiency of the Chinese, brought about the surge in demand, bringing the improvement of delivery requirements, who can guarantee the short-term period, who can ship the competitors. Therefore, it is not the Chinese engineering machinery giants who don't want to engage in order production, but "the ministers do not do"! Therefore, it is an objective mentality of the Chinese people to develop, and turn the China Construction Machinery Market into a Human Market.
The high-altitude operation platform is the ultimate market: as a fine sequential class in the construction machinery industry, the high-altitude operation platform market naturally has the characteristics of the tumble market, but compared to other construction machinery categories, the high-altitude operation platform is delivered, policy The need is the extreme in terms of demand. For example, the full-construction machinery industry, only the business conditions of the high-altitude operation platform are the most exaggerated, the down payment is low, the financing period is less than other engineering machinery, and even other projects have not been discharged. The most exuberable thing is that the high-altitude platform rental operators have no planned demand habits (of course, this is the cause of the industry and the construction site). Today, I get the site order, I will go to delivery tomorrow, and the requirements for the delivery period are high. Those who have been heart-sick. Therefore, compared to the low-cost construction machinery market, the high-altitude operation platform is fully called the ultimate tumble market.
02 Extreme Logic Market Management Logic
Then, the problem is coming, why the high-altitude operation platform will become the limit of the limit, why is the major manufacturers who will give such a large investment, give such exaggerated conditions? The capital of the field has also flooded, and it is constantly adding this industry? Then we have to stand at the high level of history.
The high-altitude operation platform is the only growth industry: well known, the high-altitude operation platform is in order to safe production and alternative scaffolding. And currently, in considerable places, people are still using scaffolding, do not completely use high-altitude work platforms. For this ratio, the author generally measures with "penetration". For example, build a factory building, all of the high-altitude operation platform, so the penetration is 100%; a high-altitude operation platform is not, then the penetration is 0%. As long as the application scenario corresponding to the high-altitude work platform, its penetration is not reached around 100% or its vicinity, then the high-altitude operation platform has a development space, which is a growth process.
The growth period, large, low risk, reverse cycle: From the experience of the previous construction machinery industry, when the construction machinery, such as tower machines, cranes, pump trucks, etc., there are time to see the top, Only the sequestieties of the high-altitude work platform are unaffected, still maintaining high-speed growth. Because there are still many application scenarios to develop because the high-altitude work platform is developed, there are many potential demand to be excavated, and it is far from seeing the need to see the top. Therefore, when the last construction machinery industry period saw the top, the segment of the high-altitude operation platform did "jumping out of the three borders, not in the five lines", laughing at the construction machinery industry, I am free.
Equation with a growing industry, it is like a bull market stock, which is indulging in which: Accordingly, when the Chinese construction machinery industry giants struggled during the quagmire at the bottom of the cycle, he had noticed the high-altitude operation platform that smiled outside. Industry, when they struggled, I couldn't help but also wrap a piece. Therefore, the ultimate urging mode of the high-altitude operation platform industry is open. Under this very favorable, exaggerated business policy stimulation, many high-altitude platform leasons actually achieve the realm of "using their own operating ability, borrowing manufacturers, borrowing chicken eggs". As long as the operating ability is satisfied, the courage is big enough, and if the capital is favored, this game can play very smoothly, theoretically, there will be no problems. Plus this growing industry is like a bull market stock, no matter how to add a leverage, there is no risk in the bull market, because the future market will rise, the future market will continue to make money.
03 Extreme Limit Risk and Thinking
So, don't you have any questions? Can this game have been playing? Of course, people who know rationally know it. Even the bull market, there is also a day of collapse. It's inevitably, the bones are not available.
Before the last round of cycles, major construction machinery giants also believe that the industry will have been developing. After experiencing the painful lessons of 2013-2016, this time everyone is clearly rational. When the cycle is seen, the plurality of times the top of the excavator is fell, it has begun to respond in advance, and shrink in advance. This also shows that there is no game to play. When a certain day, the high-altitude operation platform market is seen in the top, it is the first cycle of this construction machinery segment, it will be ignored to a hurricane. , Sorrowful.
We all want to see the scenery, but more attention to the cliff: Of course, we should take this possible vertices, can't look at it as a crisis like "tulip bubble", in fact, the author feels a better metaphor Clause. Whether it is a high-altitude operation platform manufacturer, it is still rapidly expanding the leaser of the fleet, as if it is a group of people in the mountaineering, everyone wants to go to higher height (development, scale), overlooking more beautiful Landscape (status, influence). However, everyone should pay attention to a basic problem, the height of the mountain is not absolute, if we have been flying on the hill, the more rushing, when we rush through the top of the mountain, you must inevitably fall into the top of the mountain, fall The scar is tired, even the bone is not available.
Pay attention to cliffs, rational mountaineering: Although, rapid mountaineering (rapid development) is human nature, but everyone can not do anything about blindly hiking. At present, there have been many pre-school big coffa to pay attention to this risk. They are also shouting, please don't blindly anxiety, rational, stop, etc.
The author believes that since we can't violate the nature of human thinking to hiking, then we can only rapidly hiking, while you must pay attention to the rhythm in the flying process, pay attention to the environment around you, when we find the time to the cliff, must To slow down, stop, so we can neither rush down the cliff, and experience the wonderful scenery of the mountain.
What is the sign of the cliff? The author believes that we can find these signs. For example, can we see if the development space of the high-altitude operation platform application scene is? For example, we can also see if the penetration rate has arrived by 100%? For example, we can also see the rate, rent, and so on. The author believes that when everyone has the right understanding, group rationality can be realized to avoid population risks. Even if group rationality can not be realized, some of them have foresight, and can also be brakes, and do the person who has been free before the top of the bull market.
