According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 excavator companies included in the statistics in November sold a total of 32,000 excavators, a year-on-year increase of 67%; of which 28,000 were domestic, a year-on-year increase of 68%; exports were 3 thousand, a year-on-year increase of 58 %. From January to November 2020, a total of 296,000 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 37%; domestic 265,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 38%; exports of 30,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%.
The year-on-year growth rate in November was 67%, the growth rate in October was 61%, and the monthly growth rate accelerated by 6 percentage points; the year-on-year growth rate from January to November was 37%, and the growth rate from January to October was 35%, and the cumulative growth rate accelerated 2 Percentage points. The cumulative year-on-year growth rates of real estate investment from June to October 2020 were 2%, 3.4%, 4.6%, 5.6%, and 6.3%, respectively. The year-on-year growth rates for the month were 8.5%, 11.7%, 11.8%, 12%, and 12.7%. , Improving month by month. From June to October 2020, the cumulative growth rate of newly started area of real estate will be -8%, -5%, -4%, -3%, -2.6%, and the monthly growth rates will be 9%, 11%, 2%, -2, respectively %, 3.5%, the monthly growth rate turned from negative to positive, and the economy rebounded. From June to October 2020, the cumulative investment growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) will be -3%, -1%, -0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.7%. The year-on-year growth rates for the month are 7%, 8%, 4%, 3%, 4.5%, a single month maintained a positive growth rate for 7 consecutive months, and the cumulative growth rate continued to increase.
In November, the growth rate of mid-digging continued to rebound, with a year-on-year increase of 120%; the sales of small excavators maintained a high growth rate from January to November, the cumulative sales of domestic large, medium and small excavators were about 35,000, 70,000, and 161,000 units, respectively. The year-on-year growth was 27%, 45%, and 39% respectively. Among them, the monthly sales of large, medium and small digging machines were 3,600, 8,000, and 17,000 units in November, representing a year-on-year increase of 47%, 120%, and 55.5%. In November, domestic sales of large, medium and small digging accounted for 12.5%, 28%, and 60% respectively. Compared with October, the proportion of large digging dropped 0.4%, medium digging increased 0.7%, and small digging dropped 0.3%.
The high concentration of excavator head brands continues. We estimate that the total market share of the six major companies from January to November is about 75.6%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the whole of 2019. The total market share of the six major companies in the first month of November 78%, an increase of 4.7 percentage points compared with the whole year of 2019, the leading effect trend is obvious. We judge that the top three domestic excavator market shares from January to November are Sany Heavy Industry (27.5%), Xugong Machinery (15.6%), and Caterpillar (10%). Among them, we estimate that the monthly market share of Sany Heavy Industry in November reached 33%, a new high, an increase of about 7 percentage points from the entire year of 2019, and the future market share is expected to continue to increase.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, said that the blowout of excavator sales indicates that my country's infrastructure investment has accelerated significantly, the level of resumption of work and production has continued to increase, and the economy is accelerating recovery. "If investment, consumption, and exports are the troikas that drive economic growth, then manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate are the troikas that drive investment." Yang Delong said that manufacturing investment is obviously procyclical, while real estate investment Generally stable. In this context, infrastructure investment is expected to become the vanguard of driving the economy. In Kunshan, Sany Heavy Industry Industrial Park. In the open-air parking lot, yellow-painted excavation secrets are lined up in dense rows, waiting for delivery. It has been operating at full capacity since April, and the factory is still brightly lit at night. Due to the large number of orders, logistics companies are busy delivering goods overnight.
In the first October of this year, the domestic sales of SANY excavators exceeded 60,000 units, which is expected to increase by about 50% year-on-year. Xiang Wenbo, president of Sany Heavy Industry, believes that although the economy has been hit by the epidemic in the first half of the year, the country has introduced a series of "six stability" and "six guarantees" policies, especially increasing infrastructure investment, and the excavator industry has ushered in a very good sales market.
Real estate infrastructure investment continues to recover, and the demand for artificial replacement, environmental protection and replacement is expected to continue. We expect that the sales of excavators in 2020 are expected to exceed 320,000 units, a year-on-year increase of nearly 40%; the market share of leading companies will continue to increase. The industry chain leader of excavator is continuously recommended in construction machinery. Continue to focus on recommendations: Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Zhejiang Dingli, Construction Machinery; optimistic about Hengli Hydraulics, Xugong Machinery, Aidi Precision.
——Intensity of investment has increased, and new and old infrastructure construction has been advanced simultaneously. As of the end of November, the accumulated working hours of excavators in 31 provinces across the country have achieved positive growth, and 12 provinces and cities have increased by more than 50% year-on-year, mainly in the northeast and northwest regions. The concrete machinery used in the construction of bridges and tunnels has shown a positive increase in cumulative working hours in South China, North China and East China.
——The construction process has accelerated significantly in the second half of the year. Take the crawler crane for hoisting equipment as an example. The operating time increased from January to May with a year-on-year negative growth. By June, the first positive increase occurred in the year, and it has continued to this day; the cumulative working hours from January to November exceeded the same period last year.
——The people's livelihood project is actively launched. As of the end of November, the cumulative working hours of rotary drilling rigs used in transportation, municipal administration and other fields increased by 30% year-on-year, ranking first in construction machinery. The significant year-on-year increase in single-month working hours was concentrated from March to July, with multiple increases in April, June and July.
Infrastructure is an effective tool for counter-cyclical macroeconomic regulation, and the main financing tool for infrastructure investment is special debt. To this end, the special debt has been accelerated and expanded. This year, the state has allocated 3.75 trillion yuan in local government special bonds, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan over last year.
In the excavator market, facing the large-scale decline in sales of construction machinery in Europe, America, Japan and other places, China's excavator production and sales have grown rapidly, and its share of global output is expected to rise to about 70%, becoming a strong driving force in the chill-shrouded world economy .
